Let me be clear. I still think it's a long shot that Beto O'Rourke will unseat Ted Cruz in this year's mid-term election. But I think there's a chance. Here are some of the reasons why I think that.

  • Conor Lamb

This was a special election in a Pennsylvania district which had gone solidly for Trump in 2016. Blue-collar, rust belt and about 90% Caucasian the 18th District in Pennsylvania had favored Trump by over 20% in 2016. So what happened when a Democrat challenged a Republican who had described himself as "more Trump than Trump" and "Trump before Trump"? The opposite of what most politicos expected. Conor Lamb and Rick Saccone were running for the congressional seat that had been left empty by the resignation of Tim Murphy. If you don't recall, he's the Republican who was very anti-abortion until he asked his mistress to have an abortion.
Lamb, the democrat, ended up beating the republican by a little over 600 votes. Sure, that's not much but this contest was never expected to be at all close. As in, Lamb was expected to have NO chance.

  • Roy Moore

A Republican. In Alabama. Who defied a court order to remove a Ten Commandments monument. How? How could this guy possibly lose to a democrat in Alabama, one of the Trumpiest of Trump states?? Well, it didn't help that it was fairly common knowledge that Moore had a taste for younger ladies back when he was a D.A. That kind of baggage might sink a lot of candidates. But, it WAS still Alabama and the good people of that state had overwhelmingly voted for a guy who admitted, on tape, that sexual assault was his go-to PUA move. So the democrat ended up winning. In Alabama. The UTEP Miners would have a better chance winning against the Crimson Tide in Alabama. Yet, it happened.

  • Ted Cruz

Ted Cruz does not have a reputation as likable guy. Lindsey Graham, a fellow republican, said you could kill Ted Cruz on the floor of the senate and no one would convict you. Ted Cruz once filibustered by reading "Green Eggs and Ham", thereby sullying the good name of the Senate, Dr. Seuss AND filibusters. John McCain called him a "wacko bird", John Boehner called him "a jackass" and George W. Bush would actually throw up a little in his mouth anytime he had to be in the same room. And this is from people who ARE ON HIS SIDE!

So, the already unlikable Cruz finds himself in the position of being "not Trump enough" by some Texas Republicans and "too Trump" by others. I'm not saying that Republicans who have a distaste for Cruz will jump over and vote for the Democrat, O'Rourke. But maybe, juuuuuust maybe, enough of them may not be able to bring themselves to vote Ted or just maybe they'll be so nauseated by their choices that they don't bother to leave the house. That's how DJ Trump managed to win a contest that nobody gave him a chance in.